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Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Price is Trying to Recover – 23 May 2022

Our expectations indicate that natural gas will rise during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized in their recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.80%. It settled at the price of 8.096 dollars per million British thermal units, after declining in trading on Friday by -0.34 %, during the past week, prices rose by 6.33%.

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Natural gas futures fell on Friday but maintained their weekly gains, the commodity prices are 200% higher than last year, due to record exports via liquefied natural gas, steady production growth and the recent heat wave that hit some US states in the southern belt.

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) said in its 2022 forecast for summer energy markets, driven in part by liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, demand growth will outpace oversupply this summer, resulting in year-on-year price increases.

Compared to summer 2021 levels, total domestic dry natural gas production is expected to increase 3.4% this summer, while total consumption is expected to rise 4.8%, according to a summer assessment prepared by Federal Energy Regulatory Authority staff.

FERC cited the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast for US dry natural gas production to reach 96.9 billion cubic feet per day this summer. The agency’s assessment found that this comes at a time when exports are expected to increase demand for the fuel in the coming months.

Technically, the main bullish trend dominates the movement of natural gas in the medium term and along a slope line, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily). Its movement is also supported by the continuation of its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days. The price faced some challenge represented by the level of the current resistance which is 8.054. This is the resistance that we have referred to in our previous reports, so it is now trying to gain some positive momentum that might help it breach that resistance.

Our expectations indicate that natural gas will rise during its upcoming trading, especially in the event of breaching the resistance 8.054, to target the pivotal resistance level 8.870.

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