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Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Price in Breathtaking Truce – 13 April 2022

Our positive expectations surrounding natural gas remain during its upcoming trading.

Spot natural gas prices (CFDS ON NATURAL GAS) stabilized on the rise during the recent trading at the intraday levels, to achieve slight daily gains until the moment of writing this report, by 0.45%, after falling slightly in trading yesterday, by -0.06%.

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Natural gas futures extended gains to reach their highest levels in more than 13 years, as swathes of the northern United States and southern Canada experience a prolonged winter. The high domestic demand and the demand for exports from Europe resulted in US warehouses reaching below average storage levels at this time of year while maintaining such prices.

Meanwhile, the monthly EIA report released on Tuesday expects the average price of US natural gas in 2022 to average $5.23 this year, 32% higher than the March forecast. US LNG exports are likely to average about 12.2 per cent. billion cubic feet per day for this year, a 25% increase from 2021.

Separately, the US inflation rate hit a 40-year high in the year to March after fuel prices rose during the first full month of the Ukraine war. Consumer prices rose 8.5%, the largest annual gain since December 1981, after a significant rise in energy prices. Last month, President Joe Biden banned all oil and gas imports from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

Technically, the price retreated in its recent trades in an attempt to reap the profits of its previous highs, and it is also trying to drain some of its clear buying saturation with the relative strength indicators. This is in an attempt to gain the necessary positive momentum to restore the recovery and rise again, in order to maintain the main bullish trend in the medium term amidst its trades along the lines of A slope line, as shown in the attached chart for a period of time (daily). The positive pressure will continue for its trading above its simple moving average for the previous 50 days.

Our positive expectations surrounding natural gas remain during its upcoming trading, as long as it remains above the level of 6.412, to target the resistance level of 7.181.

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