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EUR/USD: Weekly Forecast 2nd – 7th October – 02 October 2022

The EUR/USD finished the last week of trading on a positive note, but speculators now have to consider the potential for resistance.


The EUR/USD finished the last week of trading above the 0.98000 ratio, which was better than the previous week’s finish. After hitting a low of nearly 0.95365 on the 28th of September, the EUR/USD did prove it has the capability to fight upwards. However, after a high of around 0.98530 was displayed on Friday the EUR/USD did stumble slightly lower.

Traders face a difficult decision this coming week as global financial conditions are likely to remain nervous and the USD has continued to show a steady amount of strength. After showing the ability gain on Thursday and into Friday of last week, the EUR/USD may have reacted to inflation data from the U.S, which showed consumer prices are still elevated. And as a note for consideration, U.S consumer spending statistics also showed an increase showing the U.S public continues to be buyers even as inflation is generated.

Current U.S data indicates the Federal Reserve will Raise Interest Rates in November

In Europe inflation data produced higher than expected results too, and this will certainly feed into the notion the European Central Bank will have to raise its interest rate sooner rather than later. One of the issues likely troubling the ECB is that an increase in the borrowing rates in Europe could hurt its nations that face large debts. However, the European Central Bank will likely hike its Main Refinancing Rate on the 27th of October and a 0.75% increase to keep pace with the U.S central bank may be seen.

What this means for speculators is debatable and unclear. The EUR/USD seems to be trading below parity with a large degree of acceptance for the time being. The EUR/USD currency pair having touched lower depths this past Wednesday, which had not been seen since May of 2002 will not make most bullish speculators optimistic. Technical traders need to consider that the lower price range of the EUR/USD may remain intact near term.

If trading conditions remain stable, meaning a sea of nervousness doesn’t rip through the global markets, it is possible support for the EUR/USD will be considered ‘strong’ near the 0.96350 ratio.Traders should likely prepare for a rather consolidated week of price action from the EUR/USD that remains slightly below parity.

The 1.00000 Ratio in the EUR/USD is an Important Guidepost

The fact that the EUR/USD continues to trade below the 1.00000 ratio may be starting to be ‘accepted’ by financial institutions as new reality. This potential may create the notion that the current lower price range of the EUR/USD between the 0.96000 and 0.99900 level may be where a high percentage of near term trading occurs in the coming week. Global markets are nervous.

The major equity indices continue to display bearish behavioral sentiment and this is not likely to subside in the coming days. Less than bright economic outlooks for Europe may continue to create a rather ‘negative’ attitude about the EUR/USD and keep it under a legitimate amount of pressure.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 0.96200 to 1.00075

Traders should expect plenty of consolidated trading this coming week. Speculators who can take advantage of support and resistance levels between the 0.96700 to 0.99600 ratios may find an opportunity for quick hitting trades. Because global markets continue to highlight an extreme amount of caution, traders need to make sure their risk management is working at all times to insure sudden news developments do not shake them out of trades too violently.

While bullish traders who are used to the EUR/USD trading above the 1.0000 level may be tempted to aim for a lot of upwards momentum, they might be best served to keep their ambitions in check and be content with rather limited moves upward. The EUR/USD doesn’t look like it will escape its lower depths in the coming week and traders should remain conservative with their wagers as they try to take advantage of price gyrations.

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