Every time we rally, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we would see more of a jump on top of the exhaustion.
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally Monday but has struggled near the 0.6850 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to find plenty of sellers on every rally, as we continue to see the US dollar strengthen in general. Keep in mind that the Australian dollar is highly influenced by commodities and risk appetite, so you will have to pay close attention to both. Beyond that, you also have to pay close attention to the Chinese mainland, which does not exactly look like it’s on fire as of late.
As long as the Chinese continue to block parts of the economy down, that will also weigh upon the Aussies and their economy, due to the fact that China is its biggest customer. As long as that is going to be the case, is very unlikely that we are going to see a lot of follow-throughs, so every time we rally, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we would see more of a jump on top of the exhaustion.
If we can break above the 0.69 level, then it’s possible that we could go looking to the 50-day EMA, which sits just below the 0.70 level. The 0.70 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. If we can break above that, then it’s possible that the market may go looking to the 200-day EMA, which currently sits at the 0.72 region. Breaking above that would technically be a trend change, but it would take one hell of a move to turn the market around that much.
If we break down below the 0.67 level, then it’s likely that the market could go much lower, perhaps opening up the possibility of a major breakdown. After all, the level has been important multiple times on longer-term returns, so you need to pay close attention to it. If we break down below there, we could drop several handles rather quickly. The 0.65 level underneath could be important, but breaking down below there could open up a move down to the 0.62 level. I don’t think that’s going to happen easily, but longer-term it very well could be the case going forward.